China-US relations: Trump and Xi’s diplomacy masks a fragile rivalry

The frequent meetings between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2026 may suggest that Washington and Beijing are entering a more stable phase of their relationship. Yet beneath the diplomatic ceremonies, flattering remarks and promises of cooperation, the rivalry between the world’s two largest economies remains deeply entrenched. Their engagement has helped prevent tensions from escalating, but it has produced few substantive agreements capable of resolving their most consequential disputes.

The two leaders met in China in May and in Washington in September, with further encounters potentially scheduled for November and December. Trump has described the relationship in glowing terms, claiming that the two countries have made “tremendous strides” and that their leaders have never got along better. However, diplomatic warmth should not be mistaken for strategic progress. The central questions surrounding trade, advanced technology, Taiwan and global security remain largely unresolved.

The September summit was therefore less a historic breakthrough than an exercise in managing an increasingly complicated rivalry. Both governments appear to recognize the economic and geopolitical costs of confrontation, but neither is prepared to abandon the strategic advantages it believes are essential to its long-term interests.