Islamabad’s uphill battle after Trump’s midterm loss

The results of the United States’ (US) midterm elections have sparked a debate in Pakistan: Given the overreliance of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the Chief of the Defence Staff (CDS), and Field Marshal General Asim Munir, on President Donald Trump and their efforts to court him, is the country going to be a loser after the trouncing that Trump faced in the elections? The outcome has exposed Islamabad’s ad hoc and short-sighted policy. Will the Shehbaz-Asim duo be able to navigate the dramatic changes in US domestic politics?

Pakistan’s relations with the US have historically been transactional, overwhelmingly dictated by Washington’s interests in South Asia and the broader West Asian region. The two nations have drawn closer when their interests converged, but the relationship has largely been determined by the US. In many cases, it has been shaped by the personal ambitions and understanding of individual US presidents, as well as how they envisioned Pakistan’s role within their broader regional policy.

As scholarship has shown, Pakistan has primarily sought alliances to enhance its military capabilities, aiming to achieve parity with its eastern neighbour India, with whom Islamabad has shared bitter relations for the last eight decades. In other words, its policy of confrontation with India, compounded by long-standing unresolved issues between the two nations, has forced Pakistan to seek refuge under the wing of a great power, if not a superpower.