COP31 and the climate finance trap: How the Global South risks losing its sovereignty

From the report

The 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31), taking place in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20, presents a critical opportunity to address the growing climate crisis and the financial inequalities affecting developing nations. Yet, beneath the diplomatic language of climate cooperation lies a deeper struggle over economic power, financial accountability and national sovereignty. For countries already suffering the consequences of climate change, the central question is no longer simply how much financial assistance wealthy nations will provide, but whether that assistance will become another mechanism of economic dependence.

The summit’s unusual leadership arrangement reflects the geopolitical complexity surrounding climate negotiations. Türkiye is hosting the conference and holding the COP presidency, while Australia’s Climate Minister Chris Bowen is leading the official negotiations. This arrangement places two governments with significant industrial and energy-sector interests at the centre of discussions that will shape the future of global climate finance. The challenge is to ensure that the interests of vulnerable developing countries are not overshadowed by the priorities of wealthier economies.

The fundamental problem with international climate finance is the growing dependence on loans rather than grants. Wealthy industrialized nations have repeatedly presented financial assistance as evidence of their commitment to climate justice. However, the actual structure of this assistance often creates additional financial obligations for countries already struggling with external debt. An October 2025 report by Oxfam and the CARE Climate Justice Centre found that approximately 65 percent of climate finance was delivered through loans. Developing countries were also paying back more in climate loan repayments than they received, with every five dollars received generating seven dollars in repayments.